Consistency and heterogeneity of individual behavior under uncertainty

By using graphical representations of simple portfolio choice problems, we generate a very rich data set to study behavior under uncertainty at the level of the individual subject. We test the data for consistency with the maximization hypothesis, and we estimate preferences using a two-parameter utility function based on Faruk Gul (1991). This specification provides a good interpretation of the data at the individual level and can account for the highly heterogeneous behaviors observed in the laboratory. The parameter estimates jointly describe attitudes toward risk and allow us to characterize the distribution of risk preferences in the population

A Short Counterexample Property for Safety and Liveness Verification of Fault-tolerant Distributed Algorithms

Distributed algorithms have many mission-critical applications ranging from embedded systems and replicated databases to cloud computing. Due to asynchronous communication, process faults, or network failures, these algorithms are difficult to design and verify. Many algorithms achieve fault tolerance by using threshold guards that, for instance, ensure that a process waits until it has received an acknowledgment from a majority of its peers. Consequently, domain-specific languages for fault-tolerant distributed systems offer language support for threshold guards. We introduce an automated method for model checking of safety and liveness of threshold-guarded distributed algorithms in systems where the number of processes and the fraction of faulty processes are parameters. Our method is based on a short counterexample property: if a distributed algorithm violates a temporal specification (in a fragment of LTL), then there is a counterexample whose length is bounded and independent of the parameters. We prove this property by (i) characterizing executions depending on the structure of the temporal formula, and (ii) using commutativity of transitions to accelerate and shorten executions. We extended the ByMC toolset (Byzantine Model Checker) with our technique, and verified liveness and safety of 10 prominent fault-tolerant distributed algorithms, most of which were out of reach for existing techniques.Comment: 16 pages, 11 pages appendi

Environmental Exposures and Invasive Meningococcal Disease: An Evaluation of Effects on Varying Time Scales

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is an important cause of meningitis and bacteremia worldwide. Seasonal variation in IMD incidence has long been recognized, but mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon remain poorly understood. The authors sought to evaluate the effect of environmental factors on IMD risk in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, a major urban center. Associations between monthly weather patterns and IMD incidence were evaluated using multivariable Poisson regression models controlling for seasonal oscillation. Short-term weather effects were identified using a case-crossover approach. Both study designs control for seasonal factors that might otherwise confound the relation between environment and IMD. Incidence displayed significant wintertime seasonality (for oscillation, P < 0.001), and Poisson regression identified elevated monthly risk with increasing relative humidity (per 1% increase, incidence rate ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 1.004, 1.08). Case-crossover methods identified an inverse relation between ultraviolet B radiation index 1–4 days prior to onset and disease risk (odds ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval: 0.34, 0.85). Extended periods of high humidity and acute changes in ambient ultraviolet B radiation predict IMD occurrence in Philadelphia. The latter effect may be due to decreased pathogen survival or virulence and may explain the wintertime seasonality of IMD in temperate regions of North America

Do natural disasters open a window of opportunity for corruption?

This study explores the link between natural disasters and corruption at the local government. We examine whether a natural disaster affects official households more favorably than non-official households. We find that natural disasters decrease nonofficial household expenditures significantly, however have negligible effect on official household expenditures. Meanwhile, both kinds of households experience similar reduction in incomes, and have much the same disaster coping strategies. Together, the results imply that local officials may receive unobserved monetary compensation – we define as corruption - in the aftermath of natural disasters

Relative value to surgical patients and anesthesia providers of selected anesthesia related outcomes

BACKGROUND: Anesthesia side effects are almost inevitable in most situations. In order to optimize the anesthetic experience from the patient's viewpoint, it makes intuitive sense to attempt to avoid the side effects that the patient fears the most. METHODS: We obtained rankings and quantitative estimates of the relative importance of nine experiences that commonly occur after anesthesia and surgery from 109 patients prior to their surgery and from 30 anesthesiologists. RESULTS: Pain was the most important thing to avoid, and subjects allocated a median of $25 of an imaginary$100 to avoiding it. Next came vomiting ($20), nausea ($10), urinary retention ($5), myalgia ($2) and pruritus ($2). Avoiding blood transfusion, an awake anesthetic technique or postoperative somnolence was not given value by the group as a whole. Anesthesiologists valued perioperative experiences in the same way as patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are comparable with those of previous studies in the area, and suggest that patients can prioritize the perioperative experiences they wish to avoid during their perioperative care. Such data, if obtained in the appropriate fashion, would enable anesthetic techniques to be compared using decision analysis

Non-Zero Sum Games for Reactive Synthesis

In this invited contribution, we summarize new solution concepts useful for the synthesis of reactive systems that we have introduced in several recent publications. These solution concepts are developed in the context of non-zero sum games played on graphs. They are part of the contributions obtained in the inVEST project funded by the European Research Council.Comment: LATA'16 invited pape

The impact of relative position and returns on sacrifice and reciprocity: an experimental study using individual decisions

We present a comprehensive experimental design that makes it possible to characterize other-regarding preferences and their relationship to the decision maker’s relative position. Participants are faced with a large number of decisions involving variations in the trade-offs between own and other’s payoffs, as well as in other potentially important factors like the decision maker’s relative position. We find that: (1) choices are responsive to the cost of helping and hurting others; (2) The weight a decision maker places on others’ monetary payoffs depends on whether the decision maker is in an advantageous or disadvantageous relative position; and (3) We find no evidence of reciprocity of the type linked to menu-dependence. The results of a mixture-model estimation show considerable heterogeneity in subjects’ motivations and confirm the absence of reciprocal motives. Pure selfish behavior is the most frequently observed behavior. Among the subjects exhibiting social preferences, social-welfare maximization is the most frequent, followed by inequality-aversion and by competitiveness

Predicting the public health benefit of vaccinating cattle against Escherichia coli O157

Identifying the major sources of risk in disease transmission is key to designing effective controls. However, understanding of transmission dynamics across species boundaries is typically poor, making the design and evaluation of controls particularly challenging for zoonotic pathogens. One such global pathogen is Escherichia coli O157, which causes a serious and sometimes fatal gastrointestinal illness. Cattle are the main reservoir for E. coli O157, and vaccines for cattle now exist. However, adoption of vaccines is being delayed by conflicting responsibilities of veterinary and public health agencies, economic drivers, and because clinical trials cannot easily test interventions across species boundaries, lack of information on the public health benefits. Here, we examine transmission risk across the cattle–human species boundary and show three key results. First, supershedding of the pathogen by cattle is associated with the genetic marker stx2. Second, by quantifying the link between shedding density in cattle and human risk, we show that only the relatively rare supershedding events contribute significantly to human risk. Third, we show that this finding has profound consequences for the public health benefits of the cattle vaccine. A naïve evaluation based on efficacy in cattle would suggest a 50% reduction in risk; however, because the vaccine targets the major source of human risk, we predict a reduction in human cases of nearly 85%. By accounting for nonlinearities in transmission across the human–animal interface, we show that adoption of these vaccines by the livestock industry could prevent substantial numbers of human E. coli O157 cases